Public thinking on policy issues evolves through seven predictable stages, Public Agenda Founder and President Daniel Yankelovich argues in a recent article in Fortune magazine. "Politicians make a big mistake just looking at the raw numbers," Yankelovich notes, using the public's evolving perspective on health care to illustrate how public thinking unfolds over time.

"Public opinion on any issue develops slowly over a long period -- at least 10 years for a complex issue," he writes. The seven stages are:

 

Dawning Awareness: People begin to become aware of an issue, usually through television and newspaper reports. In the United States, the news media have historically been very effective in "consciousness-raising" -- alerting the public to new problems as they emerge.

 

A Sense of Urgency: People advance from simply being aware of an issue t1' developing a sense of urgency about it. The debate on health care is a good example of this phenomenon. The issue has been "in the news" as a "back-burner" for several years. It took on crisis proportions for many citizens only recently, when "job insecurity" produced by the recession led many Americans to contemplate the prospect of losing health coverage along with their job.

 

Discovering the Choices: People start to explore choices for dealing with the issue, although the depth of their understanding varies. It is at this point that public opinion polls are likely to be very misleading. In the area of health care, for example, polls seem to indicate that a majority of Americans support national health insurance. But a 1992 Public Agenda study (Faulty Diagnosis) showed that most Americans simply don't define national health insurance the way most experts do -- that is, a single national insurance program for all citizens financed through tax dollars. Public Agenda's research often begins at this stage, with studies exploring gaps between public and expert understanding of problems and the choices for addressing them.

 

Resistance: Wishful thinking and incomplete knowledge often lead citizens to reach for easy answers and resist facing costs and trade-offs. Some of Public Agenda's most important work is in identifying public resistances and finding ways to help citizens move beyond them. Public Agenda's recent reports on health care, (Faulty Diagnosis) and education reform (Crosstalk) pinpoint public misunderstandings and resistances that are blocking resolution of these two issues.

 

Weighing the Choices: In this stage, people can more rationally and realistically weigh the pros and cons of alternatives. News media generally report on choices for addressing a problem particularly if they are the subject of legislation or are actively promoted by prominent individuals or interest groups. But media often fail to help people juxtapose choices effectively and compare and contrast the costs and trade-offs involved. Public Agenda's discussion guides for the National Issues Forums and materials for its citizen choice projects such as HELP WANTED and CONDITION CRITICAL help citizens weigh policy alternatives.

 

Taking a Stand Intellectually: At this stage, many people endorse an option in theory but do not make good on it in their personal lives. For example, citizens routinely express support for preventive health care as one strategy for helping solve the health care crisis; but many fewer take the next step by giving up smoking, fast food and alcohol as a result of their beliefs.

 

Making a Responsible Judgment Morally and Emotionally: At this final stage, citizens are willing to endorse a course of action, accept its costs and tradeoffs, and live with the consequences of their beliefs.

 

A Biological Process

"We assume that public opinion is some kind of phenomenon like wind velocity, whose variations can be measured, and that the measurement is valid," Yankelovich writes. "Public opinion is in fact less like a physical process than a biological one, evolving in seven stages. Unless one knows opinion's stage of development on an issue, poll numbers will usually mislead."